Why September Is Critical for Forest and Land Fires in Indonesia – Part 1: El Niño and Dry Conditions

In a press release issued by Indonesia’s Ministry of Forestry on 1 September 2026, Minister of Forestry Raja Juli Antoni emphasized that September is a crucial phase for forest and land fire management in Indonesia. Although fire-control conditions had improved in several areas during August, he called for continued vigilance and stronger coordination as extreme dry-weather conditions and El Niño continued to pose risks during September.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with changes in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In Indonesia, its influence can reduce moisture and rainfall, contributing to longer and drier conditions across many regions. El Niño itself does not directly cause forest and land fires, but prolonged dryness can make vegetation, forest litter, branches, peat, and other organic materials increasingly dry and easier to ignite. BMKG has continued to report very strong El Niño conditions during September 2026, alongside relatively dry atmospheric conditions across much of Indonesia. 

This can also be understood through the “fire triangle”: fire occurs when three elements such as fuel, oxygen, and heat, come together. During prolonged dry conditions, the availability of dry and combustible fuel increases. When this dry material is exposed to an ignition or heat source in the presence of oxygen, the risk of fire starting and spreading becomes greater. 

BMKG projected the national peak dry-season period across July to September 2026. While many areas reached their peak in August, parts of Sumatra, southern Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, Nusa Tenggara, and Papua were still expected to experience peak dry-season conditions during September. The Ministry of Forestry (Kementerian Kehutanan) SiPongi system has continued to detect fluctuations in high-confidence hotspots across Indonesia during September, with several provinces remaining priority areas for monitoring and fire control.

A hotspot does not necessarily indicate an active forest fire, but changes in hotspot activity can provide an important early indication of areas requiring closer attention. For this reason, temporary rainfall or declining hotspot numbers in one area do not mean the wider risk has passed. Continued dry conditions and the influence of El Niño make September a period when awareness and monitoring remain especially important.

In Part 2, we will look more closely at why peatlands require particular attention during prolonged dry conditions, and why peat fires can be especially difficult to control.

Sources:

• Kementerian Kehutanan. Hadapi Puncak Cuaca Ekstrem, Menteri Kehutanan Ungkap 5 Strategi Utama Penanganan Karhutla. 1 September 2026.
• Kementerian Kehutanan. Riau dan Jambi Nihil Hotspot High Confidence, Kemenhut Perkuat Pengendalian Karhutla di Kalimantan. 12 September 2026.
• BMKG. Dampak El Niño Masih Perlu Diwaspadai, BMKG Perkuat Dukungan Pengendalian Karhutla. September 2026.
• BMKG. September 2026 Weather Outlook.